HISTORICAL CONSUMPTION DATA
| YEAR | COINCIDENT PEAK MW | MWh OFFTAKE | WESM | MWh INPUT | MWh OUTPUT | MWh SYSTEM LOSS | LOAD FACTOR | DISCRE PANCY | TRANSM'N LOSS | SYSTEM LOSS |
|---|
| 2000 | 20.28 | 89,709 | 0 | 89,709 | 78,666 | 11,044 | 50% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 12.31% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2001 | 21.54 | 95,740 | 0 | 95,740 | 83,094 | 12,646 | 51% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 13.21% |
| 2002 | 22.87 | 97,805 | 0 | 97,805 | 85,787 | 12,018 | 49% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 12.29% |
| 2003 | 23.19 | 109,648 | 0 | 109,648 | 94,017 | 15,631 | 54% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 14.26% |
| 2004 | 25.21 | 114,716 | 0 | 114,716 | 98,300 | 16,416 | 52% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 14.31% |
| 2005 | 21.30 | 113,047 | 0 | 113,047 | 94,547 | 18,500 | 61% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 16.36% |
| 2006 | 21.93 | 101,478 | 0 | 101,478 | 82,759 | 18,719 | 53% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 18.45% |
| 2007 | 22.20 | 106,900 | 0 | 106,900 | 86,208 | 20,693 | 55% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 19.36% |
| 2008 | 21.95 | 111,848 | 0 | 111,848 | 89,919 | 21,929 | 58% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 19.61% |
| 2009 | 23.57 | 118,791 | 0 | 118,791 | 98,027 | 20,764 | 58% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 17.48% |
| 2010 | 26.94 | 134,875 | 0 | 134,875 | 112,261 | 22,614 | 57% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 16.77% |
| 2011 | 26.21 | 133,063 | 0 | 133,063 | 109,416 | 23,647 | 58% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 17.77% |
| 2012 | 26.80 | 144,479 | 26,802 | 144,479 | 119,574 | 24,905 | 62% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 17.24% |
| 2013 | 31.83 | 154,795 | 34,145 | 154,795 | 127,098 | 27,697 | 56% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 17.89% |
| 2014 | 30.11 | 142,575 | 26,562 | 142,575 | 117,806 | 24,769 | 54% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 17.37% |
| 2015 | 29.12 | 160,710 | 33,086 | 160,710 | 132,498 | 28,212 | 63% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 17.55% |
| 2016 | 32.99 | 183,377 | 51,748 | 183,377 | 149,340 | 34,037 | 63% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 18.56% |
| 2017 | 35.27 | 193,308 | 28,628 | 193,308 | 159,225 | 34,084 | 63% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 17.63% |
| 2018 | 36.10 | 207,093 | 35,934 | 207,093 | 170,383 | 36,710 | 65% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 17.73% |
| 2019 | 38.49 | 216,119 | 49,882 | 216,119 | 179,293 | 36,825 | 64% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 17.04% |
| 2020 | 39.89 | 222,022 | 65,679 | 222,022 | 186,307 | 35,715 | 64% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 16.09% |
| 2021 | 41.32 | 238,271 | 77,353 | 238,271 | 205,430 | 32,841 | 66% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 13.78% |
| 2022 | 41.02 | 246,137 | 87,030 | 246,137 | 214,297 | 31,840 | 68% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 12.94% |
| 2023 | 43.45 | 258,206 | 73,596 | 255,213 | 227,759 | 27,454 | 67% | 0.00% | 1.16% | 10.76% |
Peak Demand increased from 41.02 MW in 2022 to 43.45 MW in 2023 at a rate of 5.92% due to the growing number of customers, either Residential, Commercial, Industrial and Others. MWh Offtake increased from 246,137 MWh in 2022 to 258,206 MWh in 2023 at a rate of 4.90% due to continuous usage of electricity. Within the same period, Load Factor ranged from 67% to 68%. There was an abrupt change in consumption on 2014 due to the effect of typhoon Glenda that hit the coop on July 2014.
MWh Output increased from year 2022 to year 2023 at a rate of 6.28%, while MWh System Loss decreased at a rate of 4.38% within the same period.
Historically, Transmission Loss is 1.16% in 2023, while System Loss ranged from 11.79% to 19.61%. System Loss peaked at 19.61% on year 2008 because of overextended lines and insufficient programs implemented to reduce system losses.
In 2022 and the years prior, transmission loss remained at 0% and the DOE observed that QUEZELCO1 misinterpreted this data. QUEZELCO1 acknowledged the DOE’s comments and made the necessary corrections to the data exclusively for 2023 since correcting the entire historical data will require so much time. Since the submission of QUEZELCO1 DDP PSPP 2024-2033 is a requirement for the conduct of the Competitive Selection Process (CSP), which QUEZELCO1 is expediting, the DOE considers it.
Residential customers account for the bulk of energy sales at 67.16% due to the high number of connections. In contrast, Commercial customers accounted for only 9.40% of energy sales despite of the high number of connections.
The total Offtake for the last historical year is higher than the quantity stipulated in the PSA. The PSA with GN Power Dinginin (2017-084RC) accounts for the bulk of MWh Offtake.
WESM Offtake decreased from 87,030 MWh in 2022 to 73,596 MWh in 2023 at a rate of 15.44% due to additional Energy Supplier which is PSALM.
Based on the Load Duration Curve, the minimum load is 10.63 MW and the maximum load is 42.06 MW for the last historical year.
Peak MW occurred on September 7, 2023 7:00 PM due to high usage of Residential customers. As shown in the Load Curves, the available supply is sufficient to accommodate the Peak Demand.
The Non-coincident Peak Demand is 46.39 MW, which is around 61.85% of the total substation capacity of 75 MVA at a power factor of 96%. The load factor or the ratio between the Average Load of 29.04 MW and the Non-coincident Peak Demand is 62.60%. A safe estimate of the true minimum load is the fifth percentile load of 19.61 MW which is 42.27% of the Non-coincident Peak Demand.
| MTRNG POINT | SUBS MVA | SUBS PEAK MW |
|---|---|---|
|
GUMQUE101 ATIMONAN |
5 |
4.090 |
|
LOPQUE103 HONDAGUA F1 |
2.5 |
2.680 |
|
GUMQUE104 TAGKAWAYAN |
10 |
3.872 |
|
GUMQUE105 GUMACA |
10 |
7.126 |
|
LOPQUE106 HONDAGUA F2 |
2.5 |
1.730 |
|
GUMQUE107 LOPEZ |
10 |
6.896 |
|
GUMQUE108 CATANAUAN |
5 |
4.127 |
|
PTGQUE110 PITOGO F2 |
5 |
3.964 |
|
MULQUE111 MULANAY |
10 |
5.210 |
|
GUMQUE112 BALINARIN |
5 |
3.447 |
|
MULQUE113 SAN NARCISO |
10 |
3.248 |
The substations loaded at above 70% are Atimonan (101), Hondagua (103&106), Catanauan (108) and Pitogo (110). This loading problem will be solved by the following projects;
1. Uprating the capacity of Atimonan from 5MVA to 10MVA
2. Installation of Alabat 10MVA substation
to relieve the 5MVA of Hondagua.
3. Installation of Calauag 15MVA substation to reduce the loading of Lopez (107) and Balinarin (112) substations.
4. Installation of Macalelon 10MVA substation to relieve the 5MVA Pitogo and 5MVA Catanauan.
5. Installation of Agdangan 15MVA substation to transfer most of the load of Pitogo.
FORECASTED CONSUMPTION DATA
| Year | Month | Coincident Peak MW | Contracted MW | Pending MW | Planned MW | Retail Electricity Suppliers MW | Existing Contracting Level | Target Contracting Level | MW Surplus/ Deficit |
|---|
| 2024 | Jan | 35.61 | 0.00 | 37.00 | 0.000 | 1.30 | 0% | 108% | 2.69 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb | 35.65 | 0.00 | 37.00 | 0.000 | 1.57 | 0% | 109% | 2.93 | ||
| Mar | 39.17 | 0.00 | 37.00 | 0.000 | 1.76 | 0% | 99% | -0.41 | ||
| Apr | 42.15 | 0.00 | 37.00 | 0.000 | 1.50 | 0% | 91% | -3.65 | ||
| May | 46.41 | 0.00 | 37.00 | 0.000 | 1.42 | 0% | 82% | -7.99 | ||
| Jun | 45.88 | 0.00 | 37.00 | 0.000 | 1.44 | 0% | 83% | -7.44 | ||
| Jul | 42.66 | 0.00 | 37.00 | 0.000 | 1.44 | 0% | 90% | -4.22 | ||
| Aug | 44.90 | 0.00 | 37.00 | 0.000 | 1.50 | 0% | 85% | -6.40 | ||
| Sep | 43.85 | 0.00 | 37.00 | 0.000 | 1.45 | 0% | 87% | -5.40 | ||
| Oct | 43.26 | 0.00 | 37.00 | 0.000 | 1.54 | 0% | 89% | -4.71 | ||
| Nov | 40.55 | 0.00 | 37.00 | 0.000 | 1.46 | 0% | 95% | -2.09 | ||
| Dec | 40.25 | 0.00 | 37.00 | 0.000 | 1.71 | 0% | 96% | -1.54 | ||
| 2025 | Jan | 37.13 | 0.00 | 37.00 | 0.000 | 1.36 | 0% | 103% | 1.23 | |
| Feb | 37.16 | 0.00 | 37.00 | 0.000 | 1.64 | 0% | 104% | 1.48 | ||
| Mar | 40.84 | 0.00 | 27.00 | 20.000 | 1.83 | 0% | 121% | 8.00 | ||
| Apr | 43.94 | 0.00 | 27.00 | 20.000 | 1.56 | 0% | 111% | 4.62 | ||
| May | 48.38 | 0.00 | 27.00 | 20.000 | 1.48 | 0% | 100% | 0.09 | ||
| Jun | 47.83 | 0.00 | 27.00 | 20.000 | 1.50 | 0% | 101% | 0.67 | ||
| Jul | 44.48 | 0.00 | 27.00 | 20.000 | 1.50 | 0% | 109% | 4.02 | ||
| Aug | 46.81 | 0.00 | 27.00 | 20.000 | 1.57 | 0% | 104% | 1.76 | ||
| Sep | 45.72 | 0.00 | 27.00 | 20.000 | 1.51 | 0% | 106% | 2.79 | ||
| Oct | 45.10 | 0.00 | 27.00 | 20.000 | 1.61 | 0% | 108% | 3.51 | ||
| Nov | 42.28 | 0.00 | 27.00 | 20.000 | 1.52 | 0% | 115% | 6.25 | ||
| Dec | 41.96 | 0.00 | 27.00 | 20.000 | 1.79 | 0% | 117% | 6.82 | ||
| 2026 | Jan | 38.66 | 0.00 | 27.00 | 20.000 | 1.41 | 0% | 126% | 9.75 | |
| Feb | 38.70 | 0.00 | 27.00 | 20.000 | 1.71 | 0% | 127% | 10.01 | ||
| Mar | 42.52 | 0.00 | 27.00 | 20.000 | 1.91 | 0% | 116% | 6.39 | ||
| Apr | 45.76 | 0.00 | 27.00 | 20.000 | 1.63 | 0% | 106% | 2.87 | ||
| May | 50.38 | 0.00 | 27.00 | 20.000 | 1.54 | 0% | 96% | -1.84 | ||
| Jun | 49.81 | 0.00 | 27.00 | 20.000 | 1.56 | 0% | 97% | -1.24 | ||
| Jul | 46.32 | 0.00 | 27.00 | 20.000 | 1.56 | 0% | 105% | 2.25 | ||
| Aug | 48.74 | 0.00 | 27.00 | 20.000 | 1.63 | 0% | 100% | -0.11 | ||
| Sep | 47.60 | 0.00 | 27.00 | 20.000 | 1.57 | 0% | 102% | 0.97 | ||
| Oct | 46.96 | 0.00 | 27.00 | 20.000 | 1.68 | 0% | 104% | 1.72 | ||
| Nov | 44.02 | 0.00 | 27.00 | 20.000 | 1.59 | 0% | 111% | 4.56 | ||
| Dec | 43.69 | 0.00 | 27.00 | 20.000 | 1.86 | 0% | 112% | 5.17 | ||
| 2027 | Jan | 40.20 | 0.00 | 27.00 | 20.000 | 1.47 | 0% | 121% | 8.27 | |
| Feb | 40.24 | 0.00 | 27.00 | 20.000 | 1.78 | 0% | 122% | 8.54 | ||
| Mar | 44.21 | 0.00 | 27.00 | 20.000 | 1.99 | 0% | 111% | 4.77 | ||
| Apr | 47.58 | 0.00 | 27.00 | 20.000 | 1.69 | 0% | 102% | 1.11 | ||
| May | 52.38 | 0.00 | 27.00 | 20.000 | 1.60 | 0% | 93% | -3.79 | ||
| Jun | 51.79 | 0.00 | 27.00 | 20.000 | 1.63 | 0% | 94% | -3.16 | ||
| Jul | 48.16 | 0.00 | 27.00 | 20.000 | 1.63 | 0% | 101% | 0.47 | ||
| Aug | 50.68 | 0.00 | 27.00 | 20.000 | 1.70 | 0% | 96% | -1.99 | ||
| Sep | 49.50 | 0.00 | 27.00 | 20.000 | 1.63 | 0% | 98% | -0.86 | ||
| Oct | 48.83 | 0.00 | 27.00 | 20.000 | 1.74 | 0% | 100% | -0.09 | ||
| Nov | 45.77 | 0.00 | 27.00 | 20.000 | 1.65 | 0% | 107% | 2.87 | ||
| Dec | 45.43 | 0.00 | 27.00 | 20.000 | 1.93 | 0% | 108% | 3.50 | ||
| 2028 | Jan | 41.74 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 60.000 | 1.53 | 0% | 149% | 19.79 | |
| Feb | 41.78 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 60.000 | 1.84 | 0% | 150% | 20.06 | ||
| Mar | 45.91 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 60.000 | 2.06 | 0% | 137% | 16.15 | ||
| Apr | 49.40 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 60.000 | 1.75 | 0% | 126% | 12.35 | ||
| May | 54.39 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 60.000 | 1.66 | 0% | 114% | 7.27 | ||
| Jun | 53.77 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 60.000 | 1.69 | 0% | 115% | 7.92 | ||
| Jul | 50.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 60.000 | 1.69 | 0% | 124% | 11.68 | ||
| Aug | 52.62 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 60.000 | 1.76 | 0% | 118% | 9.14 | ||
| Sep | 51.39 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 60.000 | 1.69 | 0% | 121% | 10.30 | ||
| Oct | 50.70 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 60.000 | 1.81 | 0% | 123% | 11.11 | ||
| Nov | 47.53 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 60.000 | 1.71 | 0% | 131% | 14.19 | ||
| Dec | 47.17 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 60.000 | 2.01 | 0% | 133% | 14.84 | ||
| 2029 | Jan | 43.27 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 61.000 | 1.58 | 0% | 146% | 19.31 | |
| Feb | 43.32 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 61.000 | 1.91 | 0% | 147% | 19.60 | ||
| Mar | 47.60 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 61.000 | 2.14 | 0% | 134% | 15.54 | ||
| Apr | 51.22 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 61.000 | 1.82 | 0% | 123% | 11.60 | ||
| May | 56.39 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 61.000 | 1.72 | 0% | 112% | 6.33 | ||
| Jun | 55.75 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 61.000 | 1.75 | 0% | 113% | 7.00 | ||
| Jul | 51.84 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 61.000 | 1.75 | 0% | 122% | 10.91 | ||
| Aug | 54.56 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 61.000 | 1.82 | 0% | 116% | 8.27 | ||
| Sep | 53.28 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 61.000 | 1.76 | 0% | 118% | 9.48 | ||
| Oct | 52.56 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 61.000 | 1.88 | 0% | 120% | 10.31 | ||
| Nov | 49.27 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 61.000 | 1.77 | 0% | 128% | 13.50 | ||
| Dec | 48.91 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 61.000 | 2.08 | 0% | 130% | 14.18 | ||
| 2030 | Jan | 44.80 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 62.000 | 1.64 | 0% | 144% | 18.84 | |
| Feb | 44.84 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 62.000 | 1.98 | 0% | 145% | 19.14 | ||
| Mar | 49.27 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 62.000 | 2.21 | 0% | 132% | 14.94 | ||
| Apr | 53.02 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 62.000 | 1.88 | 0% | 121% | 10.86 | ||
| May | 58.38 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 62.000 | 1.78 | 0% | 110% | 5.40 | ||
| Jun | 57.71 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 62.000 | 1.81 | 0% | 111% | 6.10 | ||
| Jul | 53.67 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 62.000 | 1.81 | 0% | 120% | 10.14 | ||
| Aug | 56.48 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 62.000 | 1.89 | 0% | 114% | 7.41 | ||
| Sep | 55.16 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 62.000 | 1.82 | 0% | 116% | 8.66 | ||
| Oct | 54.42 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 62.000 | 1.94 | 0% | 118% | 9.52 | ||
| Nov | 51.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 62.000 | 1.84 | 0% | 126% | 12.82 | ||
| Dec | 50.63 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 62.000 | 2.15 | 0% | 128% | 13.52 | ||
| 2031 | Jan | 46.32 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 63.000 | 1.69 | 0% | 141% | 18.38 | |
| Feb | 46.36 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 63.000 | 2.05 | 0% | 142% | 18.68 | ||
| Mar | 50.94 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 63.000 | 2.29 | 0% | 129% | 14.35 | ||
| Apr | 54.82 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 63.000 | 1.95 | 0% | 119% | 10.13 | ||
| May | 60.35 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 63.000 | 1.84 | 0% | 108% | 4.49 | ||
| Jun | 59.67 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 63.000 | 1.87 | 0% | 109% | 5.21 | ||
| Jul | 55.49 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 63.000 | 1.87 | 0% | 118% | 9.38 | ||
| Aug | 58.39 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 63.000 | 1.95 | 0% | 112% | 6.56 | ||
| Sep | 57.03 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 63.000 | 1.88 | 0% | 114% | 7.85 | ||
| Oct | 56.26 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 63.000 | 2.01 | 0% | 116% | 8.75 | ||
| Nov | 52.74 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 63.000 | 1.90 | 0% | 124% | 12.16 | ||
| Dec | 52.34 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 63.000 | 2.23 | 0% | 126% | 12.88 | ||
| 2032 | Jan | 47.82 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 64.000 | 1.75 | 0% | 139% | 17.93 | |
| Feb | 47.87 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 64.000 | 2.11 | 0% | 140% | 18.25 | ||
| Mar | 52.60 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 64.000 | 2.36 | 0% | 127% | 13.77 | ||
| Apr | 56.60 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 64.000 | 2.01 | 0% | 117% | 9.41 | ||
| May | 62.31 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 64.000 | 1.90 | 0% | 106% | 3.59 | ||
| Jun | 61.61 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 64.000 | 1.93 | 0% | 107% | 4.33 | ||
| Jul | 57.29 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 64.000 | 1.93 | 0% | 116% | 8.64 | ||
| Aug | 60.29 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 64.000 | 2.02 | 0% | 110% | 5.73 | ||
| Sep | 58.88 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 64.000 | 1.94 | 0% | 112% | 7.06 | ||
| Oct | 58.09 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 64.000 | 2.07 | 0% | 114% | 7.99 | ||
| Nov | 54.45 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 64.000 | 1.96 | 0% | 122% | 11.51 | ||
| Dec | 54.04 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 64.000 | 2.30 | 0% | 124% | 12.26 | ||
| 2033 | Jan | 49.31 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 65.000 | 1.80 | 0% | 137% | 17.49 | |
| Feb | 49.36 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 65.000 | 2.18 | 0% | 138% | 17.82 | ||
| Mar | 54.24 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 65.000 | 2.44 | 0% | 125% | 13.20 | ||
| Apr | 58.36 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 65.000 | 2.07 | 0% | 115% | 8.71 | ||
| May | 64.26 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 65.000 | 1.96 | 0% | 104% | 2.70 | ||
| Jun | 63.53 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 65.000 | 1.99 | 0% | 106% | 3.47 | ||
| Jul | 59.08 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 65.000 | 1.99 | 0% | 114% | 7.92 | ||
| Aug | 62.17 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 65.000 | 2.08 | 0% | 108% | 4.91 | ||
| Sep | 60.72 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 65.000 | 2.00 | 0% | 111% | 6.29 | ||
| Oct | 59.90 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 65.000 | 2.14 | 0% | 113% | 7.24 | ||
| Nov | 56.15 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 65.000 | 2.02 | 0% | 120% | 10.87 | ||
| Dec | 55.73 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 65.000 | 2.37 | 0% | 122% | 11.64 |
The Peak Demand was forecasted using Regression Analysis and was assumed to occur on the month of June due to the reason that the Peak Demand of the coop is occurring on that month. Monthly Peak Demand is at its lowest on the month of February due to cold weather on that month. In general, Peak Demand is expected to grow at a rate of 4.34% annually.
The available supply is generally below the Peak Demand. This is because of the reason that QUEZELCO I’s contracted capacity is 27 MW and a 10 MW from PSALM for 9AM-10PM only. The coop will conduct its Competitive Selection Process this year 2025 to augment its contracted capacity and serve its growing number of customers.
Of the available supply, the largest is 27 MW from GNPower. This is followed by 10 MW from PSALM. The coop will conduct its Competitive Selection Process for a new power supplier to start supplying in 2025. And, planning to have a Solar PV Embedded Generation Facility in December 2027.
The first wave of supply procurement will be a 10 MW load-following (open-technology) and 10 MW RE mid-merit (from 11:00 AM to 10:00 PM) planned to be available by January 2025 until December 2033, and March 2025 until December 2033, respectively. For the year 2028, the supply procurement will be a 30 MW load-following with 1 MW incremental every year starting January 2028 until December 2033. Additionally, the coop is planning to enter a joint venture in a 10 MW Solar PV EGF (from 8:00 AM to 4:00 PM) which shall be inter-connected and synchronized to Feeder 2 Gumaca Substation of NGCP. The target operation of the said EGF is December 2027. Lastly, the 2023-107RC (PSALM) supplying a 10 MW will be extended their contract until February 2025.
QUEZELCO1 will not be over-contracted with the above-planned contracts since there are contracts with specific time dispatch. For 2028 the peak demand for January to February is 41MW with a possible maximum nomination of 60MW and possible minimum nominations of 20MW from intervals 1 to 8, 30MW from intervals 9 to 10, 40MW from intervals 11 to 16, 30MW from intervals 17 to 21 and, 20MW from intervals 22 to 24. Also, the coop energy trading section will have a very flexible trading scheme to trade in WESM for a more competitive rate.
Currently, QUEZELCO I’s two contracts are pending to ERC’s approval – a 27 MW contract capacity with GNPower Dinginin and a 10 MW contract capacity with PSALM.
Currently, there is under-contracting by 5.06 MW. The highest deficit is 7.99 MW which is expected to occur on the month of May 2024. The lowest deficit is 0.41 MW which is expected to occur on the month of March 2024. The highest surplus is 20.06 MW which is expected to occur on the month of February 2024. But, if the basis is per interval nomination, the coop will not be over-contracted as explained in the procurement timing.
| YEAR | MONTH | MWh Offtake | MWh Output | MWh System Loss | Transm'n Loss | System Loss |
|---|
| 2024 | Jan | 19,239 | 16,983 | 2,055 | 1.05% | 10.79% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb | 19,141 | 16,773 | 2,180 | 0.98% | 11.50% | |
| Mar | 18,987 | 17,291 | 1,509 | 0.99% | 8.03% | |
| Apr | 22,824 | 19,883 | 2,665 | 1.21% | 11.82% | |
| May | 24,436 | 21,392 | 2,719 | 1.33% | 11.28% | |
| Jun | 24,957 | 21,523 | 3,093 | 1.36% | 12.56% | |
| Jul | 22,413 | 20,908 | 1,208 | 1.33% | 5.46% | |
| Aug | 24,257 | 21,302 | 2,753 | 0.83% | 11.44% | |
| Sep | 23,706 | 21,403 | 2,098 | 0.87% | 8.93% | |
| Oct | 22,589 | 20,968 | 1,425 | 0.87% | 6.36% | |
| Nov | 22,082 | 20,020 | 1,666 | 1.79% | 7.68% | |
| Dec | 20,910 | 19,394 | 1,338 | 0.85% | 6.45% | |
| 2025 | Jan | 20,049 | 17,832 | 2,016 | 1.00% | 10.16% |
| Feb | 19,947 | 17,611 | 2,149 | 0.94% | 10.88% | |
| Mar | 19,787 | 18,155 | 1,445 | 0.95% | 7.37% | |
| Apr | 23,784 | 20,877 | 2,631 | 1.16% | 11.19% | |
| May | 25,463 | 22,462 | 2,676 | 1.28% | 10.64% | |
| Jun | 26,005 | 22,599 | 3,065 | 1.31% | 11.94% | |
| Jul | 23,355 | 21,952 | 1,105 | 1.27% | 4.79% | |
| Aug | 25,281 | 22,367 | 2,713 | 0.80% | 10.82% | |
| Sep | 24,707 | 22,473 | 2,029 | 0.83% | 8.28% | |
| Oct | 23,542 | 22,015 | 1,330 | 0.84% | 5.70% | |
| Nov | 23,005 | 21,020 | 1,589 | 1.72% | 7.03% | |
| Dec | 21,793 | 20,363 | 1,252 | 0.82% | 5.79% | |
| 2026 | Jan | 20,868 | 18,681 | 1,986 | 0.96% | 9.61% |
| Feb | 20,763 | 18,448 | 2,127 | 0.90% | 10.34% | |
| Mar | 20,596 | 19,019 | 1,390 | 0.91% | 6.81% | |
| Apr | 24,754 | 21,871 | 2,608 | 1.11% | 10.65% | |
| May | 26,500 | 23,531 | 2,644 | 1.23% | 10.10% | |
| Jun | 27,064 | 23,674 | 3,049 | 1.26% | 11.41% | |
| Jul | 24,306 | 22,997 | 1,012 | 1.22% | 4.21% | |
| Aug | 26,316 | 23,431 | 2,683 | 0.77% | 10.27% | |
| Sep | 25,718 | 23,542 | 1,970 | 0.80% | 7.72% | |
| Oct | 24,506 | 23,063 | 1,246 | 0.80% | 5.12% | |
| Nov | 23,938 | 22,021 | 1,521 | 1.65% | 6.46% | |
| Dec | 22,685 | 21,332 | 1,175 | 0.78% | 5.22% | |
| 2027 | Jan | 21,691 | 19,530 | 1,960 | 0.93% | 9.12% |
| Feb | 21,582 | 19,286 | 2,108 | 0.87% | 9.85% | |
| Mar | 21,408 | 19,883 | 1,338 | 0.87% | 6.31% | |
| Apr | 25,728 | 22,865 | 2,588 | 1.07% | 10.17% | |
| May | 27,542 | 24,600 | 2,616 | 1.18% | 9.61% | |
| Jun | 28,127 | 24,750 | 3,037 | 1.21% | 10.93% | |
| Jul | 25,262 | 24,042 | 923 | 1.18% | 3.70% | |
| Aug | 27,355 | 24,495 | 2,658 | 0.74% | 9.79% | |
| Sep | 26,734 | 24,612 | 1,915 | 0.77% | 7.22% | |
| Oct | 25,474 | 24,111 | 1,166 | 0.77% | 4.61% | |
| Nov | 24,875 | 23,022 | 1,458 | 1.59% | 5.95% | |
| Dec | 23,581 | 22,301 | 1,101 | 0.75% | 4.71% | |
| 2028 | Jan | 22,514 | 20,379 | 1,934 | 0.89% | 8.67% |
| Feb | 22,401 | 20,124 | 2,089 | 0.84% | 9.40% | |
| Mar | 22,221 | 20,747 | 1,287 | 0.84% | 5.84% | |
| Apr | 26,703 | 23,859 | 2,569 | 1.03% | 9.72% | |
| May | 28,584 | 25,670 | 2,589 | 1.14% | 9.16% | |
| Jun | 29,191 | 25,826 | 3,025 | 1.17% | 10.48% | |
| Jul | 26,218 | 25,087 | 834 | 1.13% | 3.22% | |
| Aug | 28,395 | 25,560 | 2,633 | 0.71% | 9.34% | |
| Sep | 27,749 | 25,682 | 1,861 | 0.74% | 6.76% | |
| Oct | 26,441 | 25,159 | 1,085 | 0.74% | 4.14% | |
| Nov | 25,812 | 24,022 | 1,394 | 1.53% | 5.49% | |
| Dec | 24,477 | 23,270 | 1,028 | 0.73% | 4.23% | |
| 2029 | Jan | 23,334 | 21,228 | 1,905 | 0.86% | 8.24% |
| Feb | 23,218 | 20,962 | 2,067 | 0.81% | 8.98% | |
| Mar | 23,031 | 21,611 | 1,233 | 0.81% | 5.40% | |
| Apr | 27,675 | 24,853 | 2,547 | 0.99% | 9.29% | |
| May | 29,623 | 26,739 | 2,559 | 1.10% | 8.73% | |
| Jun | 30,252 | 26,902 | 3,010 | 1.13% | 10.06% | |
| Jul | 27,171 | 26,132 | 742 | 1.09% | 2.76% | |
| Aug | 29,431 | 26,624 | 2,606 | 0.68% | 8.91% | |
| Sep | 28,762 | 26,752 | 1,804 | 0.72% | 6.32% | |
| Oct | 27,406 | 26,207 | 1,002 | 0.72% | 3.68% | |
| Nov | 26,747 | 25,023 | 1,328 | 1.48% | 5.04% | |
| Dec | 25,370 | 24,239 | 953 | 0.70% | 3.78% | |
| 2030 | Jan | 24,150 | 22,077 | 1,872 | 0.83% | 7.82% |
| Feb | 24,030 | 21,800 | 2,042 | 0.78% | 8.56% | |
| Mar | 23,837 | 22,475 | 1,175 | 0.79% | 4.97% | |
| Apr | 28,641 | 25,846 | 2,520 | 0.96% | 8.88% | |
| May | 30,657 | 27,809 | 2,523 | 1.06% | 8.32% | |
| Jun | 31,307 | 27,977 | 2,989 | 1.09% | 9.65% | |
| Jul | 28,119 | 27,177 | 645 | 1.06% | 2.32% | |
| Aug | 30,462 | 27,689 | 2,572 | 0.66% | 8.50% | |
| Sep | 29,769 | 27,822 | 1,741 | 0.69% | 5.89% | |
| Oct | 28,366 | 27,255 | 914 | 0.69% | 3.25% | |
| Nov | 27,677 | 26,023 | 1,257 | 1.43% | 4.61% | |
| Dec | 26,259 | 25,208 | 872 | 0.68% | 3.34% | |
| 2031 | Jan | 24,961 | 22,926 | 1,834 | 0.81% | 7.41% |
| Feb | 24,837 | 22,638 | 2,011 | 0.76% | 8.16% | |
| Mar | 24,637 | 23,338 | 1,112 | 0.76% | 4.55% | |
| Apr | 29,601 | 26,840 | 2,486 | 0.93% | 8.48% | |
| May | 31,683 | 28,878 | 2,480 | 1.03% | 7.91% | |
| Jun | 32,355 | 29,053 | 2,962 | 1.05% | 9.25% | |
| Jul | 29,060 | 28,221 | 542 | 1.02% | 1.88% | |
| Aug | 31,487 | 28,753 | 2,532 | 0.64% | 8.09% | |
| Sep | 30,770 | 28,892 | 1,672 | 0.67% | 5.47% | |
| Oct | 29,320 | 28,303 | 820 | 0.67% | 2.82% | |
| Nov | 28,600 | 27,024 | 1,180 | 1.38% | 4.18% | |
| Dec | 27,141 | 26,177 | 786 | 0.66% | 2.92% | |
| 2032 | Jan | 25,765 | 23,774 | 1,789 | 0.78% | 7.00% |
| Feb | 25,638 | 23,476 | 1,974 | 0.73% | 7.76% | |
| Mar | 25,431 | 24,202 | 1,042 | 0.74% | 4.13% | |
| Apr | 30,554 | 27,834 | 2,445 | 0.90% | 8.07% | |
| May | 32,702 | 29,947 | 2,429 | 0.99% | 7.50% | |
| Jun | 33,395 | 30,129 | 2,926 | 1.02% | 8.85% | |
| Jul | 29,995 | 29,266 | 432 | 0.99% | 1.45% | |
| Aug | 32,503 | 29,817 | 2,484 | 0.62% | 7.69% | |
| Sep | 31,763 | 29,962 | 1,595 | 0.65% | 5.05% | |
| Oct | 30,265 | 29,350 | 718 | 0.65% | 2.39% | |
| Nov | 29,516 | 28,024 | 1,095 | 1.34% | 3.76% | |
| Dec | 28,017 | 27,146 | 693 | 0.64% | 2.49% | |
| 2033 | Jan | 26,562 | 24,623 | 1,738 | 0.76% | 6.59% |
| Feb | 26,431 | 24,314 | 1,930 | 0.71% | 7.35% | |
| Mar | 26,218 | 25,066 | 965 | 0.71% | 3.71% | |
| Apr | 31,498 | 28,827 | 2,395 | 0.87% | 7.67% | |
| May | 33,711 | 31,016 | 2,370 | 0.97% | 7.10% | |
| Jun | 34,425 | 31,204 | 2,881 | 0.99% | 8.45% | |
| Jul | 30,920 | 30,311 | 313 | 0.96% | 1.02% | |
| Aug | 33,510 | 30,881 | 2,427 | 0.60% | 7.29% | |
| Sep | 32,746 | 31,031 | 1,509 | 0.63% | 4.64% | |
| Oct | 31,203 | 30,398 | 608 | 0.63% | 1.96% | |
| Nov | 30,424 | 29,025 | 1,003 | 1.30% | 3.34% | |
| Dec | 28,885 | 28,115 | 592 | 0.62% | 2.06% |
MWh Offtake was forecasted using the regression analysis.
System Loss was calculated through a Load Flow Study conducted using Synergi software. Based on the same study, the Distribution System cannot adequately convey electricity to customers. Therefore, QUEZELCO I is implementing its CAPEX projects to satisfy its consumers.
MWh Output was expected to grow at a rate of 3.43% annually.
Transmission Loss is expected to range from 0.62% to 1.79% while System Loss is expected to range from 5.46% to 12.56%.
Power Supply
| Case No. | Type | GenCo | Minimum MW | Minimum MWh/YR | PSA Start | PSA End |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
2017-084RC |
Base |
GN Power Dinginin |
13.50 |
161,980 |
12/26/2019 |
12/25/2027 |
|
2023-107RC |
Intermediate |
Power Sector Assets and Liabilities Management Corporation |
10.00 |
4,300 |
2/26/2023 |
2/26/2023 |
The PSA with GNPower Dinginin filed with ERC under 2017-084RC was procured through Competitive Selection Process. It was selected to provide for base requirements due to the nature of customers of QUEZELCO I. Historically, the utilization of the PSA is 69.68%. Outages of the plant led to unserved energy of around 10,207.20 MWh in the past year. The actual billed overall monthly charge under the PSA ranged from 5.14 P/kWh to 7.70 P/KWh in the same period.
_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
The same ERC case was granted a Provisional Authority last August 9, 2017. Then on December 20, 2019, GNPower Dinginin sent a proposal with the subject “Supplement to the Power Purchase and Sale Agreement and Bridge Power Supply Contract” and was accordingly granted and accepted. This resulted to a bridge contract with Thermal Luzon Inc. (TLI).
_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
The CSEE with PSALM filed with ERC under 2023-107RC was procured through exemption in conducting Competitive Selection Process certified by the Department of Energy. It was selected to provide for mid-merit requirements due to the nature of customers of QUEZELCO I. Historically, the utilization of the PSA is 95.12%. Outages of the plant led to unserved energy of around 1,054.51 MWh in the past year. The actual billed overall monthly charge under the PSA ranged from 5.39 P/kWh to 6.42 P/KWh in the same period.
| Project Description | 2025-2033 Mid Merit | 2025-2033 RE Mid Merit | 2028-2033 Base | 2028-2048 Solar PV EGF |
|---|
| Type | Intermediate | Intermediate | Base | Base |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minimum MW | 10.00 | 10.00 | 30.00 | 10.00 |
| Maximum MW | 10.00 | 10.00 | 35.00 | 10.00 |
| Minimum MWh/yr | 57,500 | 33,330 | 174,900 | 19,107 |
| Maximum MWh/yr | 60,200 | 40,150 | 223,840 | 19,107 |
| PSA Start | 12/26/2024 | 2/26/2025 | 12/26/2027 | 12/26/2027 |
| PSA End | 12/25/2033 | 12/25/2033 | 12/25/2033 | 12/25/2033 |
| Publication | 6/29/2024 | 8/30/2024 | 6/29/2027 | 6/29/2027 |
| Pre-bid | 7/20/2024 | 9/20/2024 | 7/20/2027 | 7/20/2027 |
| Opening | 9/18/2024 | 11/19/2024 | 9/18/2027 | 9/18/2027 |
| Awarding | 10/18/2024 | 12/19/2024 | 10/18/2027 | 10/18/2027 |
| PSA Signing | 11/17/2024 | 1/18/2025 | 11/17/2027 | 11/17/2027 |
| Joint Filing | 11/26/2024 | 1/27/2025 | 11/26/2027 | 11/26/2027 |
For the procurement of 10 MW load-following (open-technology) and 10 MW RE mid-merit (from 11:00AM to 10:00PM) planned to be available by the month of January, and March 2025, respectively, the first publication or launch of CSP will be on August 30, 2024. Joint filing is planned on January 27, 2025 or 150 days later, in accordance with DOE’s CSP Policy DC 2023-06-0021. For the 2023-2024 power supply contract with the Power Sector Assets and Liabilities Management (PSALM) Corporation will be extended until February 2025. Additionally, Quezelco1 is planning to have an embedded generation (Solar PV). Documentary requirements for the NEA and DOE review are currently being prepared. Also, our team is currently working on the preparation for the three (3) planned CSP for the whole power requirement of QUEZELCO1 for 2028.
Captive Customer Connections
The number of 170,415 connections is expected to grow at a rate of 2.79% annually. The residential customer class is expected to account for 67.16% of the total consumption.